Hi everyone! Yesterday’s NCAAB posted picks on Twitter (@thelinemovement) went 3-2 and we are now 14-10 for +3.10 units on the year. I mentioned something on Twitter that I want to reiterate here. A lot of people ask me about my heat maps and my system and how I come to the confidence %s. I’m not trying to be rude but I purposely try to be generic as to not give away too much information. One of the struggles of being a free capper is that if he/she is successful, anyone can come in and steal their plays and sell them as their own. In my case, people have the ability to steal my heat maps too and take credit for them. Right now, I am working on a way to secure them so that if a screenshot is taken, people will know they came from me.
I also know that it causes some confusion when my posted picks don’t align with the heat map %s. This happens because I have a set of criteria I use after I generate the %s to make my official picks. This also protects me in a way in case someone does steal my maps and play the %s as they are but I know it makes it confusing for some as there are normal bettors who rely on the heat maps to make their picks. The intent of the heat maps were never to be an end all be all capping solution. It was merely meant to assist you with your capping. In the end though, people will use it how they want and I can’t control that. I can only tell you what the intent is.
With that said, I am brainstorming ideas on how to streamline my system and picks and make it as easy to understand as possible. Thank you for your understanding and if you have any questions, feel free to ask.
Side note about the NCAAB ATS heat map – I know that it seems like the heat map always have the favored teams at the highest confidence but that is due to the data that I currently collect to generate the %s. As I mentioned, at times, my posted plays may not align with the heat map %s as line movements are not currently factored into the heat maps and most likely won’t be for the foreseeable future as a lot goes into updating the heat map algorithms.
Hey everyone! I’ve decided to bring some of the heat maps back today, it’s been long overdue! There is one caveat however. Unfortunately I still have not been able to tweak the basketball and hockey heat map formulas to incorporate line movements so the percentages are “only” based on YTD stats and public/sharp %s at the time the maps were generated. Because of this, the %s may not match my posted plays at this time. Despite this, I still wanted to get the maps out to help you guys with your capping. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask!